Technical and Human Evolution

Humans did a pretty good job to evolve this far, but big changes are ahead.

As I wrote in Moore’s Law and the Future of Healthcare,

“Futurists regularly consider alternative scenarios and look at factors that can steer the future in one direction or another. That way, clients can select a preferred version of the future and know what they might do to make that future happen.

It’s relatively easy to extrapolate past trends, assuming that nothing prevents those trends from continuing at the same rate, but will they? One can also look at what’s possible by tracking research lab activity and then estimating how long it will take to bring those new technologies to market.

But a potentially better approach is to start with a solid understanding of market NEEDS and what drives the development of solutions for them, or factors that inhibit solutions. Changes in politics and public policy, for example, can be a huge driver, with Obamacare as an example, or a huge inhibitor. That’s why I’m so interested in various healthcare reforms that accompany tech innovation.”

In the following video, see how future technologies could impact human longevity, Earth’s environment, and artificial intelligence. Read More …

A Public-Private Hybrid Healthcare System


American Healthcare is Going Public, and Private. (Click to read article)

I published this article back in 2012 but updated it now because Senators Bill Cassidy and Lindsey Graham just introduced a bill they aim to ram through Congress without a CBO score or public hearings. Senator Bernie Sanders also has an Obamacare replacement. It’s a form of Medicare-for-All, and it’s gaining wide support among Democrats and the public.

GOOD NEWS UPDATE: Republicans failed to get enough votes to pass the Cassidy/Graham bill.

As founding editor of Modern Health Talk, I think both sides need to step back from partisanship, look at the big picture, consider all stakeholders, look to other advanced nations for inspiration, and combine the best properties of each into a public-private hybrid healthcare model.

Is Health Care a Right? — Dr. Atul Gawande, a surgeon and public-health researcher, wrote an amazing article for The New Yorker that asks a question that’s been dividing Americans. His interviews offer important new insights that were missing in the Republican push to repeal and replace the ACA without a single public hearing. Not only do we need to understand what other nations do, but we also need to understand the different perspectives of our own citizens. This amazing must-read article is a good companion to my own article on Single-Payer. Read More …

How will IBM Watson affect the Future of Healthcare?

Watson: a Healthcare Future with Artificial Intelligence? Does AI help doctors or replace them?

How will IBM Watson affect the Future of Healthcare? Will it replace physician functions or just be another tool for them?

IBM made healthcare news when it directed its Watson supercomputer and artificial intelligence (AI) research to target a high-profile target: CANCER. But it seems that many in the medical industry lack the imagination needed to envision the potential that Watson offers. That’s why I’m writing today.

I was disappointed by a Business Insider article, Doctors say IBM Watson is nowhere close to being the revolution in cancer treatment it was pitched to them as. It appeared overly critical and caused me to respond this way: Read More …

Tissue Nanotransfection can Heal Organs with a Touch

Tissue Nanotransfection can Heal Organs with a Touch

According to this article at MedicalXpress.com

Researchers at The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and Ohio State’s College of Engineering have developed a new technology, Tissue Nanotransfection (TNT), that can generate any cell type of interest for treatment within the patient’s own body. This technology may be used to repair injured tissue or restore function of aging tissue, including organs, blood vessels and nerve cells. Read More …

Fixing Healthcare – Searching for a Healthcare Unicorn

Fixing Health Care is more than Searching for the Healthcare Unicorn

By Brian Holzer MD, MBA, President, Kindred Innovations

[This blog post, originally published on LinkedIn, is based on my personal view and does not in any way reflect the opinions of the current organization I work for].

Last week I came across the article titled, “Cuts threaten rural hospitals hanging on by their fingernails” which reported that 673 rural hospitals were at risk of closing. The data came from the Chartis Center for Rural Health, which also cited that states including California, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama, and Georgia were most at risk with as many as 79% of their rural hospitals facing possible closure.

Reports like these that imply an impending doom of the healthcare system, as we know it are almost a daily event. And the sensationalism of healthcare by politicians and the media only adds further distractions to a system that is starving for patience and unbiased pragmatism. There is also no shortage of articles professing solutions that say nothing more than we need to 1) create a system that ensures that everyone has access to health insurance; and 2) make sure that we contain the huge cost increases.

The real problem we are facing as a society is that Healthcare is a Unicorn…Healthcare is not the same as other markets. There is a widespread lack of transparency about both the costs and the effectiveness of treatments, and many other details that a customer or end consumer might use to make purchasing and utilization decisions in healthcare. If life were as simple as it is often taught in business school classrooms, fixing Healthcare should be as easy as learning from other industries and adopting best practices. So, let’s [apply lessons from] two industries-airlines and auto insurance. Read More …

10th Apple iPhone Anniversary and Computing Progress

Apple iPhone - 10 years later Before Steve Jobs died, he introduced the Apple iPhone at the Macworld convention in January 2007. The first iPhone units actually shipped to the public on June 29, 2007, so today marks the 10th iPhone anniversary.

This is a good time to look back on the past and project ahead to the future of tech-enabled healthcare. That future will be driven by the exponentially accelerating pace of tech innovation that we call Moore’s Law. Intel co-founder Gordon Moore first observed the trend of circuits and components getting two times smaller, faster and cheaper every year or two.

In Moore’s Law and the FUTURE of Healthcare, I explored that trend and the eventual blending of science and technology (INFO + BIO + NANO + NEURO). We’re already seeing the effects, with the ability of many doctor functions to move down-market from hospitals & clinics to consumers at home. A continuation of that trend will have a profound effect on future healthcare, as I’ve already written about many times on this blog. Future-MooresLaw

In my Moore’s Law article I described the IBM System/370 Model 158-3 mainframe computer that I worked on in the early-1970s as a computer operator. It cost about $3.5M, required a large computer room, and consumed so much electricity that liquid cooling of the processor was needed to supplement room air conditioning. I compared it to an iPhone 4S, which then had 100 times more memory, was thousands of times faster, and had wireless access to the Internet, running on batteries.

We often take for granted how much compute capacity we carry in our pocket — more than it took to land a man on the moon — so as we imagine the future, it’s helpful to reflect on just how far we’ve come, and how fast. Read More …

The Aging World – Infographic about global aging

The Aging World - How older generations are affecting countries around the globe

By Matt Zajechowski

During the Middle Ages, English poet Geoffrey Chaucer wrote, “Time and tide wait for no man.” Back then, life expectancy was 45 years old, thanks to disease like the bubonic plague, wars, and low infant mortality rates. With the vast, modern improvements in healthcare, hygiene, and diet, populations today can expect much longer, healthy life spans. But living longer has an impact elsewhere, including on the economy and the division of labor and care. Check out The Aging World infographic below to see where older populations are increasing and how they’re affecting the economy. Read More …

When Caregiver Robots Come for Grandma

Failing the Third Machine Age: When [Caregiver] Robots Come for GrandmaWhen Robots Come for Grandma is a long and thought-provoking article by Zeynep Tufekci, published in 2014. It builds a case against “caregiver robots,” arguing that they are both inhumane and economically destructive. She got me thinking, and I hope this has the same effect on you.

I would have liked to add my own perspectives and contrarian view with links to related articles here at Modern Health Talk. I’d start with Will Robots Take Over in Health Care? Unfortunately there was no space to add comments, so I use her article as a basis for mine and hope you’ll share your thoughts in the space I give below. Read More …

Healthcare as Public Utility

healthcare as a public utility - image of health care practitioner with handheld mobile deviceComputing functions once associated with PCs are moving back to big servers in the Internet Cloud, leaving mobile client devices to handle the user interface (UI) but not the data storage and analysis. I find this shift especially interesting, having grown up in the mainframe world at IBM as computing functions moved to PCs.

In the case of speech recognition and Apple’s SIRI artificial intelligence, even the UI function is now split between client & server. This has huge implications for healthcare, with IBM’s Watson and AT&T’s analytics engine aimed at different parts of the healthcare problem.

The networked mobile device (phone, tablet, etc.) will serve as a health gateway between a host of medical & environmental sensors and cloud-based services that collect & analyze the collected data. The benefits will not just target individual patients but be applied across large populations.

Read More …

Wall-E, End of Work, and Universal Basic Income

EDITOR’S NOTE:  I’m reposting this article with new information from a U.N. report that warns countries to prepare for the day when technology, automation, and artificial intelligence replaces jobs. They expect 75% of the world population to become unemployable, and that day is coming sooner than most people realize. It will have immense social consequences.

Wall-E is a fun & warm-hearted animated movie by Pixar that also warns against ignoring environmental pollution and the obesity epidemic. It presents future humans as super-obese couch potatoes living in a robot & technology-dominated world set some 700 years in the future. By then, mankind had so completely trashed Earth’s environment that humans were forced to relocate to spaceships and evolved into large, floating fat blobs – the Axioms.

But the future doesn’t have to be as foretold. We learned that from the classic movie, A Christmas Carol. By knowing the risks of possible futures that our current behavior may take us to, we can change. We can change course to save the environment, improve our health & well being, and find solutions to wide unemployment.

I hope you enjoy the video clips below, as well as the additional links and discussion that follows.

Read More …

Envisioning the Future of Health Care

Envisioning the Future of Health Care

At the end of each New Year, it seems everyone has a list of top trends, as Dr. Meskó did in The Most Exciting Medical Technologies of 2017.

MORE PREDICTIONS: I too have made predictions (http://www.mhealthtalk.com/101-minitrends-in-health-care/) and often point to the hidden opportunities that lurk at the intersections of MiniTrends. Most futurists miss those if they just extrapolate obvious trends without factoring in the many market accelerators and obstacles that determine how quickly a preferred version of the future appears. Read More …

Who Should We Believe about Longevity & Other Claims?

Who should we believe about how long we can REALLY live?Who should we believe about how long we can REALLY live?

Controversy and catchy headlines help sell magazines and advertising, and that makes writing about outrageous claims profitable. The more outlandish, the better. The news media loves it, and so do the readers, whether it’s political controversy or in how long we can live.

The LA Times, in When, and why we must die, is just one of the many news outlets to pick up a story about two scientists who recently published study results concluding that humans can’t live beyond age 122. They’re entitled to their opinion, but I don’t buy it. Read More …

Big Data Revolutionizing Healthcare

Big Data Revolutionizing Healthcare

Byline article by Jessica Oaks

The healthcare industry has long been a hotbed for technological and pharmaceutical development. Consider the discovery and later development of penicillin in the 1920s and 1930s to fight bacterial infection, or the use of X-ray imaging in the 1890s to see inside the body. Technology furthers the cause of healthcare and medicine by enabling better treatment and better outcomes.

So it should come as no surprise that technology continues to revolutionize the modern healthcare industry. What may surprise you, however, is the role that technology increasingly is playing in healthcare. After years of evolutionary development, in which existing processes and technologies were slightly refined and improved upon, healthcare is truly undergoing something of a seismic shift in the way patient care is approached. Read More …

Benefits and Risks of Artificial Intelligence

This image represents Artificial Intelligence, a digital mind that can learn and act on its own. According to a recent article in MedicalFuturist.com, artificial intelligence (AI) will redesign health care with unimaginable potential. The author sees great benefits, and so do I, but he dispels the risks – risks that visionaries like Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Stephen Hawking warn against. They warn that full development of AI could spell the end of the human race, and I share that concern. That’s why I’m writing today’s article with a cautionary tone.

The accelerating pace of change

At issue is whether or not man will find ways to guard against the dangers of tech innovation accelerating exponentially and indefinitely. The questions start with, what will AI, automation and robotics eventually do to employment? Which jobs will be replaced first, and which are safe for now? What might AI do for (or to) government? I don’t share the author’s confidence and instead side with the visionaries. Here’s why. Read More …

Are Crypto-Currencies Safe?

Here's a Bitcoin - at least a representation of one since they're actually electronic

Here’s a Bitcoin – at least a representation of one since they’re actually electronic

Last week Yvonne and I closed on the sale of our Austin home and the purchase of another home in the Dallas area. The process was simpler than I remember from the past, and since we paid cash for the new home, we didn’t even need a notary. I just downloaded a few forms, signed them on the kitchen table, scanned into the computer, and sent them back to the Title Company through a secure email service. This experience foretells the future, but are crypto-currencies safe? Really safe?

The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is soliciting research papers related to blockchain applications in healthcare. Blockchain is the enabling technology behind BitCoin and other crypto-currencies, and it’s catching on fast — maybe too fast. Judge for yourself. Read More …

The Future of Healthcare? It’s In The Past

The future of healthcare is impacted by the ripple effects of past developments, trends, market drivers, and market inhibitors

The future of healthcare is largely affected by politics and population health successes of the past, including vaccines, clean water, safe food, sewer systems, public education, and the environment, each causing its own set of ripples in the system. But dampening these positive effects is special interest lobbying aimed at protecting profits. (Wayne Caswell, mHealthTalk editor)

By Tim Perry, MPA, MS, CPHIMS, PCMH CCE, CISSP

Look Back to See Where We Are Going

To celebrate its 200th anniversary, the New England Journal of Medicine published an article in June 2012 titled, “The Burden of Disease and the Changing Task of Medicine“. The authors did a wonderful job of looking not only at clinical data on disease but also shed light on changes in society that affected the prevalence of diseases. A particularly interesting part of the article is a chart depicting the Top 10 Causes of Death in 1900 vs 2010. Notice the changes. Read More …

The Disruptive Force of Technology in Healthcare

A LinkedIn discussion of mHealth argued that, “Technology is Just a Tool. It’s Not The Solution to Healthcare’s Problems” — I couldn’t disagree more and posted this response…

Those in the Ivory Tower should worry about the disruptive force of technology in healthcareMy Editorial Opinion

Okay, Technology is not the end-all, but it’s MUCH MORE than just a tool for solving healthcare’s problems. The accelerating pace of tech innovation is a disruptive force that’s breaking business models and helping to move us away from the fee-for-service model that’s primarily responsible for Americans spending twice as much as those in other advanced nations for healthcare. (See Moore’s Law and the FUTURE of Healthcare.)

Those at the top of the healthcare mountain, especially those resisting more rapid adoption of disruptive technology, are most at risk of obsolescence. As noted in 101 Minitrends in Health Care, 429 of the original [1955] Fortune 500 companies are no longer in business today.

As medical devices keep getting cheaper, smaller, more accurate, and easier to use; more & more functions once associated with doctors in hospitals will move down-market toward consumers at home, office or wherever they are. Telehealth video calls and telemedicine sensor monitoring will extend across town, across state lines, and across international borders as payers (including Medicare) realize that medical tourism often offers better outcomes at less cost.

All of these trends will democratize healthcare, increase competition, and help move the emphasis away from sick care and toward health & wellness. As Benjamin Franklin said, “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.”

The Smart Home Mess

The networking Tower of Babel contributes to the Smart Home Mess.

I often write about Smart Home technologies that can help seniors or people with disabilities live independently and safely at home, but I also criticize the media and marketers for their excessive hype and for ignoring the smart home mess.

The Smart Home Mess

Today’s posting is my response to, an excellent article by Stacey Higginbotham, published yesterday in FORBES.

The most insightful quote from this article is, “The smart home, for better or worse, is an ecosystem. And so far, most companies are trying to make it a platform.”

MY COMMENT: Even a SMART Home ecosystem, if it targets DIY consumers, is not very smart and will likely fail to reach mass market adoption. That’s because it puts Consumer’s in the role of systems integrator, in a complex ecosystem with competing standards and retail confusion. Read More …

HEALTH or SICK Care?

 

Health or Sick Care

Dr. Sachin H. Jain wrote a good article in Forbes calling for Redesigning Health Care to Meet the Needs of Our Sickest Patients, and I’m publishing my response here.

“While I understand the need to improve care of our sickest and most frail elderly patients, my view conflicts with that of the medical industry, which we mistakenly call the “healthcare” industry.  Read More …