Investor Look at 2015 Healthcare Opportunity
Editorial by Wayne Caswell
While I’m not a financial advisor or Wall Street analyst, I took issue with a MedCityNews article by Paul Beckley, “An investor’s 2015 healthcare roundup.” In short, he said to “BELIEVE in the business of health.” While I’m bullish on the future of healthcare, I sure hope he’s wrong, because the amount Americans spend on healthcare needs to go way down, not up. Here’s my reader comment and investor advice.
Beckley’s article bills Healthcare as an immensely profitable industry. It is, because it brings in $3T/year. But since that’s twice what other nations pay per person, yet we still live sicker and die younger (per the World Health Organization), investors should prepare for some very big losses in my view. At least that’s what I hope happens, and while it may not be good for clueless healthcare investors, it would be immensely good for the economy.
Our nation should “theoretically” be able to cut overall costs in half (like $1.5T/year) with health reform, digital innovation and new business models and still improve outcomes. There will be many winners among the innovators, but there will also be a great many losers who aren’t insightful enough to see the handwriting on the wall or quick enough to adapt.
As Charles Darwin said, “It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
That, and the fact that 429 of the original Fortune 500 companies [1955] are no longer in business today, is a scary thought for those sitting at the top of the healthcare mountain. They know they must adapt to health reform die, and they’re looking down with fear at hungry innovators who are already exploiting the many healthcare MiniTrends and their important intersections. For those innovative entrepreneurs, these are times of great opportunity, and they’re climbing up the mountain.
See 101 MiniTrends in Health Care. It’s a “must read” for investors and entrepreneurs looking at the 2015 healthcare opportunity.